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قدیمی 05-24-2019, 12:23 AM   #1
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پیش فرض How Iranian and American posturing could lead to war (Shahir Shahidsaless)

How Iranian and American posturing could lead to war

Perhaps the most menacing and most likely event that could lead to the outbreak of war is a "false flag" operation staged by Israel with the help of the People’s Mujahedin of Iran (MEK), a movement that seeks regime change in Tehran.

Meanwhile, Ayatollah Khamenei, including in his 14 May statements, has repeatedly insisted that “there is not going to be any war". He added: "Neither we nor they - who know war will not be in their interest - are after war.” Khamenei’s argument is flawed on two counts. First, he believes that wars begin after both sides have done extensive, meticulous cost-benefit calculations.
Seeking to identify the causes of wars, Robert Jervis, the renowned professor of international politics, concludes that, "war can occur without misperception, but rarely".
Misperception, Jervis writes, is "inaccurate inferences, miscalculations of consequences, and misjudgments about how others will react to one's policies, and may include military optimism, pessimism about long-term diplomatic and military prospects, incorrectly anticipated consequences." Read more



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