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قدیمی 04-23-2010, 07:57 AM   #1
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تاریخ عضویت: Aug 2008
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پیش فرض A Bond Market Crash Will Drive Gold Higher

The gold market has been heating up and conditions are moving into an alignment which is ideal for a gold price rally this year. Fear and uncertainty will drive the price northwards even if the current CTFC saga does not eventuate in immediate disciplinary action or regulatory change.
The fact is that the lack of physical supply has been exposed and this will attract more investors to gold as rarity is again bought to the forefront for investors. If the issues raised at the enquiry are to be addressed we could see explosive short covering and gold price action. However this is a bonus I am not counting on at this stage.
Currency risk has escalated due to concerns over sovereign debt levels. Currency movements are now extreme and concerns over which currency one should invest in (if any) are warranted. Gold is acting like a currency not a commodity. It is interesting to note that even though you cannot print gold as a metal the banks have somehow managed to print paper gold which they classified as “physical”. Even the most innocent interpretation of this classification could be viewed as misleading.
I note that the warnings of a bond market crash have been growing over recent months. GoldOz has been talking about this for several months including articles discussing Greece and how their situation is neither unique nor sorted. Pimco has now announced that it has stopped buying all bonds. Therefore they will not be reinvesting any funds in this market when their current bond holdings reach maturity.
Given Pimco are the leading bond investor in the USA and in global bond markets I view this as significant. They generally get the markets right which is why they have grown to be the largest bond fund over their 39 year history. The reason for their stance of course is that interest rates are going up and the cost of capital is increasing. This is a serious problem because this removes the low interest rate tool from the Central Banking system as a stimulus measure.
Given the unsustainable nature of the current historically unprecedented debt load I see severe disruptions to the global economy from the subsequent and inevitable unwinding of this bubble. The key reason interest rates are going up is risk. Risk has to be factored into treasury rates or investors will not invest in them it is as simple as that.
Investors may have read that high interest rates are bad for gold. This comes from the fact that when interest rates are above the true inflation rate it is more attractive to hold cash than gold which does not provide any such return via interest payments. What we are talking about here in present time is somewhat different however.
Then why am I stating that rising rates will be good for gold? In this instance the rising rates will be increasing due to fear and will create fear and uncertainty which are both great for gold. Let’s face it an upward interest rate spiral is not what the world needs now.
As interest rates increase the repayment load increases for governments, corporations, SME’s (Small to Medium Enterprises) and private borrowers. This in turn increases the risk of default and so overall risk increases even further. As rates go up across the board more and more of the disposable income heads toward the banks instead of other consumption which constrains growth and therefore government and business incomes.
As income falls across the board outside the banking system we see greater risk factored into lending, bad news on bond offerings and higher rates. This leads to job losses (or business failure) which causes loan defaults and then foreclosures as we have seen in the USA and elsewhere. The defaults are not immediately acted on by the banks so this all takes time. You have to default on several payments before the bank will take this step and it takes a further 6 months to sell the asset.
Of course it takes time before employers lay off workers. Interest rates are still relatively low so this effect takes time to flow through the system which fights this decay every step of the way.
What I am describing is of course the pathway to GFC2 which will take some time. It starts with events like Greece and the contagion slowly spreads through the system. This is a decay so feared that you now see denial as nobody wants to see it but again I state this is great for gold and ultimately gold stocks.
In other words this can easily turn into a spiral forcing governments to just print new money rather than borrow it to keep things afloat. If they cannot secure funds via treasury auctions then they are forced to print. This causes currency upheaval and if the tipping point, which would be a loss of confidence in the currency occurs then this can develop into a hyperinflation...Read More
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